Purchasing teams measure negotiation, not timing: the gap between the price paid and the price at another moment has no owner and resurfaces as a budget variance. A simulation across 20,000 scenarios shows strategies cost almost the same in the typical case and up to 30-35 budget points more in the worst 5%.

KEY INSIGHTS

• The urgency premium rises to 3-3.5% in the worst scenarios, exactly when it hurts most.
• In the median case strategies cost the same; in the worst 5% cost goes from 115 to 148.
• An annual contract does not remove risk: it shifts it to renewal, volumes and price lists.