Investment plans are approved on a single point estimate and revised once a year, yet in 2026 the six most common external assumptions left their tolerance band in a median of 3.7 months. The report shows how to move from estimate to probability: simulate scenarios, optimize the project portfolio under constraints, and reopen the decision by thresholds, not by calendar. The technology to do it is now accessible beyond large corporations.
KEY INSIGHTS
- Assumptions expire in 3.7 months The six external variables most common in corporate plans (orders, energy, rates, inflation, investment) left the tolerance band in a median of 3.7 months: a 36-month plan described reality for only about 10% of its horizon.
- The plan ages faster than it is updated The external conditions a business case rests on move every week, while the plan is revised once a year. As a result, for most of the year capital is allocated against assumptions that are already out of date: not a 2026 accident, but the structural condition under which companies plan today.
- Risk concentrates in the portfolio Project risks do not add up, they correlate: with the Q1 2026 shocks, the covenant-breach risk on an "all-in" plan moves from almost zero to 3 or 4 chances in 10, without a single cell of the business case having changed.
